The ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has materially reduced usable airspace across the Gulf and surrounding region. Multiple FIRs are closed outright, others are partially restricted, and remaining corridors are absorbing displaced traffic.

This is not a localized disruption. It is a regional airspace compression event affecting Europe–Gulf–Asia traffic flows

The Northern Gulf Corridor Is Effectively Shut

Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Iraq, and Iran FIRs are closed.

Supporting NOTAMs include:

• Kuwait FIR closed (OKAC) – A0096/26 (02 Mar 0911–1600 UTC)
• Bahrain FIR closed (OBBB) – A0070/26 (02 Mar 0828–1600 UTC EST)
• Doha FIR closed (OTDF) – A0473/26 (02 Mar 1500–2200 UTC EST)
• Baghdad FIR closed (ORBB) – A0145/26 (02 Mar 0800–04 Mar 0900 UTC)
• Tehran FIR closed (OIIX) – A0719/26 (01 Mar 0547–03 Mar 0830 UTC EST)

Operational effect:

• No overflight redundancy across the northern Gulf
• Europe–India and Europe–Gulf sectors forced into limited southern or northern detours
• Increased congestion over Turkey and Saudi Arabia
• Higher fuel burn and extended block times

The traditional central corridor is not available.

UAE Is Open — But Structurally Constrained

The Emirates FIR remains partially open but under routing restrictions and military-related airway closures.

Relevant NOTAMs:

• OMAE A0894/26 – M318 and M550 closed due to military activity
• OMAE A0910/26 – Emirates FIR partially closed; arrivals/departures restricted to specified waypoints; westbound overflights limited to LUDID; flow measures implemented

Operational implications:

• Traffic compressed into defined entry/exit fixes
• Tactical ATC reroutes likely
• Holding probability increased
• Congestion into OMDB, OMDW, OMAA, OMSJ, OMRK

The UAE is absorbing displaced Gulf traffic under constrained routing architecture.

Jordan Adds Nightly Constraints

Jordan airspace is closed daily 1500–0600 UTC through 05 March.

Supporting NOTAM:

• OJAC A0099/26 – Airspace closed daily 1500–0600 UTC

Operational impact:

• Nighttime Europe–Gulf routings affected
• ETD timing critical to avoid mid-route closure
• Additional reliance on Saudi corridors

This further reduces flexibility during peak westbound flows.

Oman Is the Pressure Valve

Oman remains open but is managing dynamic airway closures and flow measures to absorb diverted traffic.

While no blanket FIR closure exists, operators should expect:

• Tactical reroutes
• Airborne sequencing
• Flow management initiatives
• Rapid NOTAM updates

Oman is currently the primary stabilizing corridor, increasing its strategic importance.

System-Level Impacts

With five FIRs closed and others restricted, regional airspace capacity is materially reduced.

Immediate operational risks:

• Extended routing and increased fuel burn
• Reduced alternates flexibility
• Permit amendments due to rerouting
• Crew duty limitations on ultra-long sectors
• Slot compression at Gulf hubs
• Increased probability of last-minute NOTAM changes

In compressed airspace environments, small planning assumptions create outsized operational risk.

Operator Guidance

• Validate routes immediately prior to dispatch
• Add contingency fuel beyond standard planning margins
• Confirm overflight permit flexibility for rerouted paths
• Identify alternates outside restricted FIRs
• Monitor NOTAM updates continuously
• Build schedule buffer into ETDs